Ontario voters have an opportunity to shift the political landscape. While many ridings are considered "safe" for one party or another, there are several close races where strategic voting could help flip a seat from the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) to another party.
Strategic voting—casting a ballot for the candidate most likely to defeat a PC incumbent—could be a powerful tool in these ridings. Below is a list of key ridings where this approach could make a real impact. While some are very close, a few are still hard to tell and so we will give those another day or two to see if we can read it better.
You don’t have to wait until election day to cast your ballot. Advance polls are open today, tomorrow, and Saturday. Voting early helps campaigns focus on getting out the vote on election day—so if you already know who you’re voting for, make your voice heard now!
Check with Elections Ontario for your advance polling locations and hours.
Target Ridings to Flip
GTA & Toronto Area:
Etobicoke—Lakeshore – Lee Fairclough (Liberal)
Etobicoke Centre – John Campbell (Liberal)
Eglinton—Lawrence – Vince Gasperro (Liberal)
York South—Weston – Faisal Hassan (NDP)
Don Valley North – Jonathan Tsao (Liberal)
Scarborough Centre – Mazhar Shafiq (Liberal)
Mississauga—Erin Mills – Qasir Dar (Liberal)
Mississauga—Lakeshore – Elizabeth Mendes (Liberal)
Mississauga—Malton – Jawad Haroon (Liberal)
Mississauga—Streetsville – Jill Promoli (Liberal)
Mississauga Centre – Sumira Malik (Liberal)
Brampton Centre – Martin Medeiros (Liberal)
Brampton North – Ranjit Singh Bagga (Liberal)
Brampton South – Bhavik Parikh (Liberal)
Brampton West – Andrew Kania (Liberal)
Ajax – Robert Cerjanec (Liberal)
Pickering—Uxbridge – Ibrahim Daniyal (Liberal)
Hamilton & Kitchener-Waterloo Area:
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek – Heino Doessing (Liberal)
Hamilton Mountain – Kojo Damptey (NDP)
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas – Sandy Shaw (NDP)
Kitchener Centre – Aislinn Clancy (Green)
Other Key Urban and Rural Ridings:
Burlington – Andrea Grebenc (Liberal)
Cambridge – Rob Deutschmann (Liberal)
Oakville – Alison Gohel (Liberal)
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell – Trevor Stewart (Liberal)
Haldimand—Norfolk – Bobbie Ann Brady (Independent)
Nepean – Tyler Watt (Liberal)
Parry Sound—Muskoka – Matt Richter (Green)
Peterborough—Kawartha – Adam Hopkins (Liberal)
Algoma—Manitoulin – David Timerski (NDP)
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte – Rose Zacharias (Liberal)
Markham—Stouffville – Kelly Dunn (Liberal)
Markham—Thornhill – Nirmala Armstrong (Liberal)
Why This Matters
These ridings have been identified based on past election results and polling data that suggest a close race. A small shift in voter turnout and coordination among those seeking change could make the difference between keeping a PC seat or flipping it to another party.
What You Can Do
Research Your Riding: If you live in one of these ridings, consider supporting the candidate best positioned to defeat the PC incumbent.
Volunteer & Donate: Campaigns in close races need volunteers and funding—getting involved could make a real impact.
Talk to Friends & Neighbors: Help spread awareness about the importance of strategic voting in these key races.
Make a Plan to Vote: Ensure you’re registered, know your voting location, and encourage others to do the same.
With the stakes high, strategic voting could be the key to reshaping Ontario’s political future.
Let’s work together to make every vote count!
